Putin’s Gambit

My latest blog post for The National Interest looks at the diplomatic challenges that will face Russia if Moscow tries to convert its temporary bargaining position over Ukraine into lasting geopolitical achievements.  I argue that Putin is doing a poor job of building international support for any long-term revisions he might want to make to the European security architecture.  That’s good news for those who would like to see Russia’s influence curtailed, but the west shouldn’t be complacent. Read the full post here.

With the ceasefire in Ukraine showing early signs of holding, international attention will now intensify towards finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis facing the country. For Kiev and its Western backers, prospects are bleak for bringing about their desired settlement. But it will also not be easy for Vladimir Putin to convert his considerable short-term bargaining power into lasting strategic gains…